Growth and spatial distribution
As per Census of India (2001), Nagpur’s population is about 20.52 lakhs. The population trends of the city show a declining growth rate over the decades. It has decreased from 48.3% in 1921-31 to 32.6% in 1991-2001. Based on the linear projection method, the growth rate may reduce in the next three decades to 22.2% (2021-31). Accordingly, in the next 25 years Nagpur’s population would double. But, considering the recent development projects like Multimodal International Hub Airport – Nagpur (MIHAN) and IT sector’s likely investments in the city, Nagpur’s growth rate may revive itself and Nagpur’s population may double by 2021, i.e. in the next 15 years. Nagpur needs to plan for its infrastructure accordingly. In the graph below the corrected figure population reflects that the level of population that can be attained if the all the proposed investments in and around the city like the MIHAN project fully materialise.
As per Census of India 2001, the attractiveness of the city for migrants has been decreasing. In the last decade (1991-2001), almost 46% of the population growth has been due to inmigration. The figure has declined to 24% in the last four years (1997-2001), as per Census 2001. Further, data regarding key reasons for migration shows that attractiveness of the city as a business destination is also low. Most of the migrants have originated from the rural areas. The key reasons for migration by the male population were work/employment (49%), followed by movement of household (22%) and education (10%). The proportion of people shifting for business purposes was very small.
The distribution of population is highly uneven. The city is characterised by low-rise development, which is dense in the older and inner parts of the city, and by a lot of vacant land in the outer areas of the city. The inner city area of the city had high densities of 700-850 persons per ha (as per Census 1991) and also along national highways, NH-6 and NH-7. But the peripheral areas indicated densities ranging from as low as 10 persons per ha to 150 persons per ha.